This week we held a future-gazing session in Soho. In addition to our Hothouse expert panel, we welcomed Gary Duncan, economics editor at The Times, as a guest contributor.
It was a broad ranging session. In four short hours, we debated the future of democracy, energy innovation, macroeconomics, global communities and the fusion of nanotech, biotech and artificial intelligence.
Professor James Woudhuysen kicked off the session talking about the future of forecasting. He believes that whilst demand for it is increasing in an age of uncertainty, people seem to value it less. As people increasingly focus on single issues, with misguided projections and with a media intent on hype and fear, forecasting itself has taken a reputational hit in the last decade or so. Nonetheless, done right, with insights, with good judgement and with a healthy dose of scepticism about statistical projections, forecasting can be an agent of change and progress. But only if we believe in our ability to change and progress.
A dominant theme was the increasing role of China in 21st century economics, politics and society. With differing views and perspectives on what is actually taking place in China the conversation led to a broader philosophical discussion about democracy. And more specifically, whether or not the concept of democracy itself is compatible with the pace of growth and development being experienced in many Asian economies. There are valid arguments to suggest that only in a command and control society like China can you truly deliver the super-growth that they are experiencing. Nonetheless, is this a price worth paying?
Dan Jellinek picked up on the theme of future democracy. He suggested that many of the innovations in recent years such as electronic voting, e-petitions and digital referenda, whilst important in many ways, were not going to reshape democracy. However, he pointed to PledgeBank as one of the tools which truly does have the potential to reinvigorate democracy and participation. It is about building communities of action. It is about getting things done in collaboration with others. And it could well be a disruptive force in 21st century democracies.
Professor Peter Cochrane tantalised the group with prospects of a future which would see biotechnology, nanotechnology and artificial intelligence combine to transform manufacturing, medicine and economics. He suggested that the 21st century could well see a return to micro-industry and micro-production whereby staggering innovations can be achieved on the kitchen table as people have more access to information, knowledge and technology than ever before. He painted a picture in which we could grow socks not make them and a future where we could grow limbs and reconnect spinal tissues with relative ease.
Elizabetta Camilleri talked about how global communities and hubs would become the building blocks of society over the next generation. By using technology to organise, to relate and to create, she articulated a future in which greater understanding could be achieved across boundaries, both geographic, social and political. She told us about her young nephew, who lives in Malta, who demanded that his birthday party was held somewhere with a broadband connection so he could invite his friends virually from London and North America. This type of interaction may become the norm in a world where physical travel is demonised as carbon reduction becomes the only show in town.
Gary Duncan closed the session by talking about the macroeconomic outlook and highlighted some of the dangers inherent in the current economic environment that may lead to a wobble mid-2010. With the next decade expected to see much lower growth in the West, compared to the previous decade, it is time for business, individuals and governments to not just adjust but rethink their modus operandi.
It was an intensely stimulating session. And it has given us a lot to think about as we finalise our 2010 Hothouse Foresight research to be launched on December 3.
We will be posting a write up of the session so do check back in the next few days.